Model Predictions
| Model | Kansas State | Baylor | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.4% | 55.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.8% | 40.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.0% | 60.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Baylor +1 (67-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.