Model Predictions
| Model | Tennessee State | Murray State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 4.6% | 95.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 12.7% | 87.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 13.6% | 86.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 19.2% | 80.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.0% | 96.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.9% | 96.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 14.6% | 85.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State +25 (83-58). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.