Model Predictions
| Model | Penn State | Purdue | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.0% | 84.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 29.2% | 70.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.4% | 75.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.3% | 75.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.5% | 71.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Purdue +17 (88-71). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.