Model Predictions
| Model | Louisville | Cincinnati | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.8% | 82.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 21.1% | 78.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 20.8% | 79.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 10.7% | 89.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 10.5% | 89.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.2% | 78.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cincinnati +9 (68-59). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.