Model Predictions
| Model | Loyola (IL) | Wright State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 39.6% | 60.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 62.1% | 37.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.3% | 29.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.4% | 29.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Wright State +13 (84-71). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.