Model Predictions
| Model | Fresno State | Rice | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 85.0% | 15.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 87.8% | 12.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 75.9% | 24.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 83.8% | 16.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 97.6% | 2.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 97.7% | 2.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 76.1% | 23.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Rice -12 (57-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.