Model Predictions
| Model | Cal State Fullerton | Pacific | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.8% | 79.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.2% | 61.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.8% | 71.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 39.3% | 60.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.3% | 73.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 26.2% | 73.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 29.0% | 71.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Pacific +15 (68-53). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.