Model Predictions
| Model | Bowling Green | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.3% | 41.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.3% | 60.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Marshall -5 (83-88). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.