Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois–Chicago | Wright State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.5% | 30.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.6% | 30.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Wright State +20 (72-52). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.