Model Predictions
| Model | Jacksonville | Stetson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.4% | 71.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Stetson +4 (83-79). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.