Model Predictions
| Model | Mercer | Samford | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 10.3% | 89.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.3% | 82.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 14.3% | 85.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 22.9% | 77.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 3.2% | 96.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.1% | 96.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 15.1% | 84.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Samford +4 (61-57). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.