Model Predictions
| Model | Southeast Missouri State | Morehead State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.7% | 28.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 84.1% | 15.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 61.9% | 38.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 67.2% | 32.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 89.9% | 10.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 90.0% | 10.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.3% | 39.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Morehead State -16 (58-74). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.