Model Predictions
| Model | Southern Mississippi | Cincinnati | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 5.8% | 94.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.6% | 82.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.2% | 88.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 41.5% | 58.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 3.0% | 97.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.9% | 97.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 12.9% | 87.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cincinnati +26 (95-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.