Model Predictions
| Model | New Hampshire | Drexel | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.1% | 93.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 16.0% | 84.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 12.4% | 87.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 10.2% | 89.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.6% | 95.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 4.5% | 95.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 13.6% | 86.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Drexel +23 (77-54). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.