Model Predictions
| Model | Campbell | Stetson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.3% | 60.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 32.1% | 67.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 33.9% | 66.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Stetson -6 (61-67). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.