Model Predictions
| Model | Morehead State | Murray State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.2% | 93.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 15.6% | 84.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 22.9% | 77.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 12.9% | 87.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 12.9% | 87.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 24.8% | 75.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State +15 (80-65). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.