Model Predictions
| Model | Appalachian State | Davidson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.4% | 33.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 73.3% | 26.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 73.4% | 26.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Davidson +15 (69-54). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.