Model Predictions
| Model | Hartford | Northeastern | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 64.6% | 35.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.7% | 39.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 60.8% | 39.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Northeastern +16 (77-61). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.