Model Predictions
| Model | Eastern Kentucky | Murray State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 2.1% | 97.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 8.5% | 91.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 14.2% | 85.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.0% | 96.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 4.0% | 96.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 16.4% | 83.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State +33 (101-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.