Model Predictions
| Model | Iowa | Purdue | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.7% | 82.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.6% | 71.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.4% | 79.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.2% | 73.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Purdue +8 (67-59). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.