Model Predictions
| Model | Little Rock | Centenary (LA) | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.0% | 82.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.2% | 72.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 29.9% | 70.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.4% | 59.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.9% | 71.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Centenary (LA) +2 (66-64). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.