Model Predictions
| Model | Ohio | Marshall | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.2% | 50.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 62.1% | 37.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 62.3% | 37.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Marshall +6 (78-72). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.