Model Predictions
| Model | Chattanooga | Davidson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.2% | 76.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.7% | 64.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.6% | 60.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Davidson +26 (104-78). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.