Model Predictions
| Model | Massachusetts | Xavier | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.7% | 63.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Xavier +10 (87-77). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.