Model Predictions
| Model | Jacksonville | Samford | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 12.7% | 87.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 17.4% | 82.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 33.6% | 66.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 5.3% | 94.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 5.2% | 94.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 18.2% | 81.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Samford +21 (79-58). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.