Model Predictions
| Model | Nevada | Pacific | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.8% | 64.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 38.9% | 61.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.7% | 63.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.6% | 63.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Pacific +10 (62-52). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.