Model Predictions
| Model | Cal State Fullerton | Cal Poly | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 57.4% | 42.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 67.6% | 32.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 59.9% | 40.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly +29 (108-79). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.