Model Predictions
| Model | Manhattan | Iona | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.0% | 83.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.1% | 60.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Iona +2 (80-78). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.