Model Predictions
| Model | Stetson | Samford | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.0% | 80.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.0% | 67.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 6.1% | 93.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 5.9% | 94.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 19.1% | 80.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Samford +35 (92-57). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.