Model Predictions
| Model | Wagner | Robert Morris | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.9% | 77.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.2% | 61.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.7% | 59.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.5% | 59.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.8% | 61.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Robert Morris +8 (81-73). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.