Model Predictions
| Model | Tennessee State | Morehead State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.6% | 71.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 32.9% | 67.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.0% | 74.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 25.8% | 74.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.8% | 72.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Morehead State +31 (104-73). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.