Model Predictions
| Model | UC Irvine | Cal Poly | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 55.5% | 44.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 65.9% | 34.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 65.8% | 34.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal Poly -23 (67-90). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.