Model Predictions
| Model | Army | Colgate | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.5% | 93.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.0% | 82.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 13.1% | 86.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 6.6% | 93.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 6.5% | 93.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 18.5% | 81.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Colgate +16 (67-51). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.