Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State | Purdue | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.4% | 39.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.3% | 33.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 58.0% | 42.0% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 54.1% | 45.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 85.3% | 14.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 85.7% | 14.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Purdue +3 (70-67). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.