Model Predictions
| Model | Tennessee State | Murray State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 7.4% | 92.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.3% | 84.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 20.2% | 79.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 5.2% | 94.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 5.1% | 94.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 16.9% | 83.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State +17 (82-65). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.