Model Predictions
| Model | Kentucky | Florida | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.0% | 47.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.9% | 41.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.3% | 40.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Florida +17 (90-73). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.