Model Predictions
| Model | Morgan State | Howard | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 66.4% | 33.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.5% | 39.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 60.2% | 39.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Howard -7 (72-79). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.