Model Predictions
| Model | Niagara | Iona | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 31.1% | 68.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 32.9% | 67.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 31.7% | 68.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Iona +14 (96-82). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.