Model Predictions
| Model | Butler | Wright State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 76.2% | 23.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 79.5% | 20.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 77.3% | 22.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 78.0% | 22.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 98.5% | 1.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 98.5% | 1.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 75.1% | 24.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Wright State -24 (55-79). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.