Model Predictions
| Model | Liberty | Winthrop | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.7% | 90.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 21.6% | 78.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 28.6% | 71.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 10.8% | 89.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 10.6% | 89.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.0% | 75.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Winthrop +17 (80-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.