Model Predictions
| Model | UT Arlington | Texas State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 63.7% | 36.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 81.7% | 18.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 81.7% | 18.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.3% | 40.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Texas State +23 (89-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.