Model Predictions
| Model | Tennessee–Martin | Murray State | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 8.9% | 91.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 19.2% | 80.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 22.5% | 77.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 25.4% | 74.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 12.3% | 87.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 12.3% | 87.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.7% | 74.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State +18 (90-72). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.