Model Predictions
| Model | Villanova | Georgetown | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.6% | 59.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 40.0% | 60.0% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.9% | 61.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Georgetown -3 (69-72). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.