Model Predictions
| Model | Belmont | Centenary (LA) | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.1% | 76.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.8% | 61.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Centenary (LA) +11 (74-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.