Model Predictions
| Model | Boise State | Cal Poly | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.6% | 35.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 71.3% | 28.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 61.5% | 38.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 69.3% | 30.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 86.5% | 13.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 86.6% | 13.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.1% | 42.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly -3 (68-71). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.