Model Predictions
| Model | Cornell | Harvard | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.9% | 35.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 65.1% | 34.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Harvard +10 (67-57). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.