Model Predictions
| Model | Troy | Stetson | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 59.8% | 40.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.9% | 25.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.0% | 25.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Stetson +17 (88-71). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.