Model Predictions
| Model | UC Santa Barbara | Cal Poly | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.0% | 41.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.6% | 36.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 60.7% | 39.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.2% | 24.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.4% | 24.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly -8 (79-87). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.