Model Predictions
| Model | Dayton | Xavier | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.3% | 57.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.2% | 43.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.7% | 59.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Xavier +1 (65-64). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.