Model Predictions
| Model | Navy | Colgate | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 70.4% | 29.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 58.2% | 41.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 62.6% | 37.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 87.5% | 12.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 87.7% | 12.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.1% | 43.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Colgate -4 (65-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.